Walmart Connect is contacting advertisers directly with an offer of on-site brand lift studies to help them assess their spending. For media buyers, the question is whether those findings will strengthen the case for investment.
Brand lift and incremental sales measure different outcomes. A change in brand perceptions may help justify an awareness budget, but that evidence alone cannot show that ads drove extra purchases.
Brands weighing Walmart’s offer for holiday campaigns and 2027 budgets should keep that distinction clear. The studies can expand their measurement, but brands should judge success on their own terms rather than default to the retailer’s chosen metrics.
Match the Study to the Budget Decision
Three agency executives reported that Walmart’s sales team had approached multiple clients directly about the studies. Walmart provided no response before publication, leaving the agencies’ accounts as the basis for details about the offer.
Advertisers approached about the studies can use the discussion to review what they expect their retail media budget to deliver. An awareness goal calls for a different test than customer acquisition or additional sales.
Lacie Edgeman, co-owner and managing director at PrograMetrix ad agency, interpreted the offer as a bid for broader funnel investment. In her view, Walmart wants advertisers to assess its role across awareness and purchase intent, beyond conversion alone.
That broader role deserves a clear measurement brief. Before accepting a study, buyers should identify the budget decision its findings could change.
| Budget question | Evidence buyers should seek |
|---|---|
| Did the campaign improve brand response? | A lift measure tied to the campaign’s stated awareness objective |
| Did advertising produce extra purchases? | A test designed to distinguish added sales from purchases likely to happen anyway |
| Should Walmart receive more funding? | Findings tied to the objective that buyers can compare with other uses of the same budget |
Campaign planning is the time to resolve these questions. Waiting until a report arrives invites teams to judge the campaign against whatever results happen to be available.
Keep Brand Lift Separate From Sales Incrementality
Incrementality asks what changed because advertising ran. In sales terms, the task is to separate additional purchases from those that would likely have occurred without the campaign.
A brand lift study addresses a different part of that problem. Depending on its design, it may help assess a change in awareness or purchase intent. Buyers should ask which outcomes Walmart’s study measures before treating it as evidence of customer acquisition.
The available account of the offer does not establish that the studies prove incremental sales. That limits how confidently advertisers can use the findings to defend performance budgets.
Anthony Costanzo, chief analytics officer at Mile Marker, said advertisers still cannot independently run the tests they would prefer within the retailer’s closed environment. He viewed the offer as progress while emphasizing those remaining limits.
For a growth team, the practical response is to keep separate evidence for separate claims. Brand response can inform funnel planning; a claim of additional revenue needs a test suited to that question.
Direct Outreach Needs a Shared Measurement Brief
Costanzo said eligibility for the studies depended on spending through Walmart Connect. At least four Mile Marker clients were participating, though he disclosed neither their identities nor spending levels.
He also described access as extending beyond the larger advertisers that had previously received individual beta offers. That suggests more accounts may face decisions about whether the study justifies its requirements.
Direct retailer contact need not undermine agency involvement. A Stella Rising spokesperson described well-executed studies as beneficial to both advertiser and retailer.
The risk for buyers is a disconnected process. Brands should bring their agency into the discussion before agreeing to terms, so the study fits the wider media plan.
A shared brief should resolve the following points:
- Objective: Which funnel outcome will the study evaluate?
- Access: Who can review the method and interpret the findings?
- Cost: What spending requirements apply, and do they fit the existing plan?
- Timing: Which budget decision can the report realistically inform?
- Limits: Which revenue or acquisition claims will remain unproven?
These are questions to ask, rather than confirmed features of Walmart’s offer. The goal is to prevent a useful research opportunity from becoming an unsupported reason to spend more.
Reporting Delays Can Weaken the Commercial Value
Edgeman said reporting could arrive as late as nine weeks after the campaign finishes. She also flagged cost, linked to spending requirements, as a trade-off.
That delay should affect how buyers value the study. If results miss a budget deadline, they cannot guide that allocation, even if they help later planning.
Ask for a delivery schedule before committing. Then separate decisions the findings could support from those requiring evidence sooner.
Edgeman said advertisers become less willing to support spending they cannot defend during Q4. A late report may offer learning, but buyers should avoid treating future findings as present justification.
Make Broader Funnel Investment Earn Its Place
Walmart reported 38% growth in its global advertising business for the year’s second quarter. eMarketer forecast retail media spending of $69.33 billion before year-end, adding scale to the measurement debate.
An unnamed agency executive suggested that stronger incrementality capabilities could help Walmart compete with Amazon for advertising budgets. That remains a potential advantage, rather than an established outcome of this offer.
Advertisers should assess the studies on their usefulness to a specific decision. A sound brand lift result could support continued awareness investment without resolving whether the campaign generated additional sales.
For the next budget review, attach each proposed increase to the evidence it requires. Where Walmart’s study leaves a gap, record that limit and seek a suitable test before expanding performance spend.
